Computers, Shoes Lead Third-Quarter Rankings

The vast majority of Portland-area public companies showed healthy gains during the quarter ending Sept. 29, but two companies — Sequent Computer Systems Inc. and Nike Inc. — led the pack by a wide margin. Of the 39 local companies charted, 28 showed stock price gains, while nine showed losses. Two showed prices the same as those registered at the close of the preceding quarter. Leading the way was Beaverton-based Sequent, whose stock jumped 64.5 percent from $21.88 per share to $36 per share during the quarter. Sequent, a designer, manufacturer and seller of parallel-processing computer systems, targets many of its products for the growing database management market, which includes such areas as hotel and airline reservations. Alan Denison, an analyst with Portland’s Black & Co., said the company has been successful because of its expertise in the database field, which is “huge and growing rapidly.” Added Scott Conyers, an analyst with Charter Investment Group Inc., Portland, “At a time when most high-tech companies are struggling, they keep turning in good sales years.” (excerpt)
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White, Brian

Full text: [The Business Journal] Oct 16, 1989

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Rapid Stock Rise Gives AT&E Hope of a Bright Future

SAN FRANCISCO — A 70 percent rise in the price of AT&E Corp.’s common stock price since mid-August is a sign of growing respectability for the small company, and company officials and analysts alike think it will attract more attention from investors. After trading for $10.50 a share in August, AT&E stock hit this year’s high of $18.50 last week. The local company has been in development for about six years with a plan to produce Dick Tracy-type wristwatches. As it nears the market with the devices, its stock is moving steadily upward, and is trading in higher volumes than it had in the past. (excerpt)
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Carlsen, Clifford

Full text: [San Francisco Business Times] Oct 16, 1989

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Earnings to Drop at Masco Industries

Masco Industries Inc., the Taylor-based auto supplier touted by analysts as one of America’s best-managed companies, will report a major earnings drop in the third quarter and likely finish the year with earnings down. One analyst, Theresa Gusman of Salomon Brothers, a New York City-based investment firm, estimated that Masco Industries’ operating earnings might drop as much as 34 percent in the third quarter, to $32.9 million, and could drop 9 percent for the year. Kenneth Zak, a spokesman for Masco Industries, said Gusman’s third-quarter earnings estimate was “in the ballpark.” (excerpt)
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Barkholz, David

Full text: [Crain's Detroit Business] Oct 16, 1989

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What’s Ailing IBM? More than This Year’s Earnings

For IBM Corp., 1989 was supposed to be the year that would prove to investors and competitors that Chairman John F. Akers has been pursuing the right course. Leaner management, 21,000 early retirements, a major US reorganization, new products, and a revamped marketing strategy would help Akers get IBM out of the 4-year earnings slump it entered after he became chairman. Analysts have lowered their predictions for 1989 earnings to as little as $5.5 billion. Still burdened with too many employees, IBM continues to rely on essentially one product – mainframe computers. However, competition is growing, sales of mainframes are slowing, and IBM has had to cut prices to maintain its 60%-plus market share. The firm has postponed a major new mainframe disk drive because of technical difficulties, its small computer business is soft, and it has no laptop computer. Most analysts, however, praise IBM’s many recent investments in software companies, its use of faster chips in its personal computers, and its plan for yet another mainframe disk drive in 1990.
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Verity, John W.

Full text: [Business Week] Oct 16, 1989

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The Coming Sizzle in Computer Stocks

Computer stocks peaked in 1983 and have trailed the market ever since. However, these stocks do have a future. The best investment opportunities lie in desktop computers. Single-user microcomputers, such as personal computers (PC), account for 46% of all expenditures on computers and software. By 1994, they will account for 62%. An emerging multimedia market will use PCs to manage sound, graphics, and video, in addition to text and numbers. Desktop firms that will benefit include Apple Computer Inc. and Compaq Computer Corp. One of the most exciting desktop companies could be Next Inc., the start-up firm launched by Apple founder Steven P. Jobs. Larger machines could also make a comeback as communications switches and storehouses for networks of desktops. The trend toward building computer networks will favor system integrators, including Electronics Data Systems, a General Motors Corp. subsidiary, and Computer Sciences. Companies that have profited from the use of information systems include Dun & Bradstreet and Reuters Holdings PLC.
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Lewis, Geoff

Full text: [Business Week] Oct 16, 1989

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The Age Wave – And How to Ride It

Two forces are at work in the economy. The 76-million-strong baby-boom generation is entering midlife, and the elderly, especially those 75 years and older, are living longer. Investors who comprehend the magnitude and the nuances of these population shifts could do well in the stock market. As the baby-boomers mature in the 1990s, income growth will accelerate and productivity will rise. Higher savings mean more investment, which will boost economic growth without causing inflation. The pickup in savings and investment will be good for such brokerage firms as Merrill Lynch and retail specialist A. G. Edwards. Wealthier consumers will spend more on luxuries, which should increase profits for Tiffany’s, Louis Vuitton, and other specialty retailers. An aging population is accompanied by an increased demand for health care services. Pharmaceuticals look like a fairly safe investment. Companies tied to the housing market, however, will not fare well. Home-buying among the baby-bust generation, those born in the 1965-1976 period, will slacken in comparison with the baby boomers.
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Seeking Growth in a Smaller World

New markets are opening up around the world as old trade barriers are removed. The firms with strong international positions will likely be the major winners in the 1990s, and so will those who invest in their stocks. Central to the coming increase in global trade is the removal in 1992 of national economic barriers in Europe, in order to create a unified market. In such mass-market businesses as food, automobiles, and even computers, some of the largest firms are likely to benefit from increasing global economic unification. H. J. Heinz, which already earns over 40% of its profits overseas, wants to turn its UK ketchup plant into a giant, low-cost production center for all of Europe. Investors should also look at firms with a special franchise or niche in a fast-growing industry – a firm such as Reuters. Citicorp, the largest US bank holding company, is already an international player. Smaller US firms that have mastered the art of export are also good investments. These include Intermec and Symbol Technologies.
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Reed, Stanley

Full text: [Business Week] Oct 16, 1989

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New Streets, Paved with Gold

With traffic-choked highways and collapsed bridges, Americans live with the consequences of a deteriorating infrastructure. The US must increase its public-works spending, which would create many opportunities for companies that build roads and bridges. In 1988, voters authorized $14 million for public works projects. The companies that will benefit from the spending include engineers, contractors, rock crushers, heavy-equipment makers, and financial services concerns that are raising money to pay for the construction. Many of the firms are regional and not well-known on Wall Street. The big name in engineering and construction is the recently restructured Morrison Knudsen. Cement and crushed rock firms usually do not attract investors. However, foreigners especially like them, and now more than 60% of the US cement-making capacity is owned by foreign concerns. A UK firm, Insituform Group, has a technology for repairing water and sewer lines without digging them up. In financing, regional firms with strong municipal bond businesses are recommended.
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Laderman, Jeffrey M.

Full text: [Business Week] Oct 16, 1989

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Fine Job, Larry – But Don’t Get Too Settled

After losing $1.3 billion in a 5-year span, Control Data Corp. is undergoing a remarkable transformation engineered by Lawrence Perlman, its president and chief operating officer. Several large institutional stockholders have requested that the board of directors name Perlman chief executive. In response, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Robert M. Price agreed on September 29, 1989, to give up the CEO title. However, instead of naming Perlman to the post, the board formed a search committee to consider other candidates. Some company employees see the board members asserting their power. Price says Perlman is the leading candidate, but Wall Street is worried that he may depart. The loss of Perlman would seriously erode Control Data’s already low stock price, which has been in the 18-22 range for years. Perlman, who turned around 2 company divisions, Commercial Credit Corp. and the Imprimis disk-drive operations, is widely regarded as the best chance to revive Control Data.
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Mitchell, Russell

Full text: [Business Week] Oct 16, 1989

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Cleaning Up on the Coming Cleanup

The public is demanding definitive action against pollutants, and the Bush Administration is strengthening enforcement and regulation of environmental cleanup programs. According to conservative estimates, annual spending on products and services that clean up the environment will increase to $174 billion by 1995, from $56 billion in 1989. That opens lucrative opportunities for investors to buy into firms that are in the business of environmental cleanup and pollution control. Trading at 65 3/8, Waste Management, the largest firm in waste collection and disposal, is highly rated by analysts. It is diversifying into hazardous waste, asbestos, and medical-waste incineration. In recycling, Wellman used 70% of the returned plastic beverage bottles in the US to manufacture polyester fibers in 1988. The top-ranked firm in cleaning up and safely disposing of toxic wastes is Chemical Waste Management. Many experts think private firms will increasingly take over water management from public agencies, which makes Metcalf & Eddy an attractive investment choice.
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Smith, Emily T.

Full text: [Business Week] Oct 16, 1989

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Banking Gets Leaner and Meaner

The US banking system will decrease in size in the 1990s. As bankers push for cost controls and economies of scale, the pace of acquisitions and mergers is increasing. The stock market has often lowered the stock price of acquirers because takeovers usually result in an immediate dilution of earnings. However, shrewd investors might take advantage of these declines in stock price. There are fewer obstacles to expansion because states have been dismantling the barriers against interstate banking since the early 1970s. Many of the acquisitions will be made by super-regionals, such as NCNB of Charlotte, North Carolina. Super-regionals enjoy a clear advantage when it comes to consolidation. They already are good at making their interstate franchises profitable. Less obvious investment candidates are the Bank of New York and Wells Fargo, which analysts expect to become super-regionals. Specialization will largely determine which of the US’ thrift institutions will survive. A good investment candidate is H. F. Ahmanson, the largest originator of adjustable rate mortgages.
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Meehan, John

Full text: [Business Week] Oct 16, 1989

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What Bull Market?

The last 24 months rank as one of the strongest rallies in stock market history. With this in mind, Barron’s asked FactSet Data Systems to run a computer screen of companies whose stocks have not yet recovered from the stock market crash of 1987. The screen initially was set to scan only for stocks that still were within 10% of their 2-year-old low. However, so many candidates were produced that the parameters were tightened. Finally, 45 companies were left, ranging in performance from Filtertek, a maker of sophisticated filter products (whose stock is up 9.7%), to Inmac, a direct-response marketer of computer-related products (whose stock is down 59%). Many well-known firms also are on the list, such as Canadian newsprint producer Abitibi-Price. One industry stands out more than the others on the screen: high technology, especially computers, led by IBM Corp. Other poor performing computer stocks include Cray Research (down 25%) and Digital Equipment Corp. (down 10.3%). Several noncomputer high-technology firms are listed as well.
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Palmer, Jay

Full text: [Barron's National Business and Financial Weekly] Oct 16, 1989

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Less There than Meets the Eye: A Hard Look at CMS Energy’s Financials and Earnings

CMS Energy Corp. is the holding company for Consumers Power Co., one of Michigan’s largest electric utilities. The current value of CMS Energy’s notes in a Midland, Michigan, cogeneration plant project appears to be considerably less than anticipated by investors. CMS Energy will experience large annual losses from its agreement to buy power from the cogeneration venture. In addition, the supposedly lush free tax flow that has lured many investors into the stock has turned out to be more of an illusion than reality. While CMS Energy is likely to suffer most of the fallout from Midland’s poor economics, its partners in the cogeneration project (and the venture’s notes) are unlikely to escape completely unscathed. Excessive costs are at the root of these troubles. Aside from the annual losses for the commitment to buy power, CMS Energy faces additional losses for disallowed gas costs, a pretax writedown of $800 million on its subordinated notes and equity in the cogenerator, and a $350-million aftertax writedown in assets that the venture cannot use.
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Tice, David W.

Full text: [Barron's National Business and Financial Weekly] Oct 16, 1989

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Jump-Starting Philips: The Electronics Giant Finds New Spark

Investors in Philips Electronics (Eindhoven, Holland), Europe’s largest and broadest based electrical and electronics company, may be focusing too much on the firm’s troubled past and ignoring signs of a gathering improvement. Since 1980, a number of steps have been taken to improve the firm. These include: 1. a sweeping management shakeup, and 2. a thrust to slim once-extensive product lines. In addition, a drive has been launched to expand operations in the US and the Pacific Rim. Chief Executive Cor van der Klugt took the helm at Philips in 1986; a fundamental part of his strategy is that the firm remain on the cutting edge of high-technology electronics, particularly in the research and production of advanced semiconductors. By van der Klugt’s reasoning, Philips still must close 50 to 70 European factories and lay off some 30,000 more workers before it can become profitable. Large US money managers holding the stock are looking for 1989 earnings (before exceptional items) of $1.25 to $1.75 a share.
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Palmer, Jay

Full text: [Barron's National Business and Financial Weekly] Oct 16, 1989

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Greiner Engineering: Trim and Fit for Infrastructure Jobs.

A spending binge to repair US infrastructure may hold great promise for Greiner Engineering Inc. (Irving, Texas). For years, Greiner has been well regarded for its expertise in providing design services for construction projects, such as bridges, highways, airports, and other transportation projects. Frank T. Callahan, president and chief executive officer of Greiner, is confident that a lot of new business is ahead. California is one area that Greiner has especially targeted. In the past year or so, the company has picked up a few highway and bridge design jobs in that state. In its quest for new business, Greiner has the solid footing of a sound balance sheet. To realize a better return while expanding its business, management has put costs under closer scrutiny. One result has been a tendency to avoid new jobs with questionable profitability. Greiner is trimming overhead expenses as well.
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Full text: [Barron's National Business and Financial Weekly] Oct 16, 1989

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Funds: Chain Reaction

John Tilson of the $37-million Pasadena Growth Fund believes that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is the most consistent growth company around. Tilson says that the great thing about Wal-Mart is its ability to recognize a retailing trend and then adapt it to the business. An interesting confirmation of Wal-Mart’s expertise is that 30% of its stores were formerly occupied by other retailers who did not find the locations worth holding. Part of the company’s growth potential lies in its move to larger communities. For example, Wal-Mart soon will open stores in California and New York. While many investment professionals are concerned about retail stores’ exposure to a hard landing of the economy, Tilson is not worried about the effect on Wal-Mart. He feels that, if Wal-Mart can succeed in Texas, it can succeed anywhere.
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Cochran, Thomas N.

Full text: [Barron's National Business and Financial Weekly] Oct 16, 1989

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From Pits to Peaks to . . . Until Friday, the Crash Was Just a Fading Memory

The trauma of the 1987 stock market crash had faded perceptibly until Friday, October 13, 1989, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 190.58 points. Corporations and other pension-fund sponsors suddenly became insistent again that their portfolio managers remain fully invested in stocks. While the public, chastened by memories of the crash, still might be mostly out of the market, professional investors are not. Robert Farrell, Merrill Lynch’s chief technical analyst, says that the sharp downturn of October 13th could wash out some excess bullishness and possibly extend the rally. The stock market currently is selling at rarefied levels by many traditional measures. However, the leveraged buyout mania, which has spurred the bull market of the 1980s, is experiencing problems, as the gap between the market value of potential targets and their private owner value has closed dramatically. Despite these problems, major securities firms have returned to index arbitrage in an attempt to profit from price discrepancies between different markets.
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Full text: [Barron's National Business and Financial Weekly] Oct 16, 1989

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Ames Department Stores Inc.: Zayre Units Close to Boosting

When Ames Department Stores Inc. (Hartford, Connecticut) acquired the Zayre chain in October 1988, it doubled the discount retailer’s size and posed a giant consolidation task. One year after the acquisition, the consolidation is well ahead of schedule. In addition, Ames is finding more dollar savings and spending less on the consolidation than projected. On October 26, 1989, some 254 refurbished Zayre stores will begin carrying the Ames name, with many of the converted outlets slated for more extensive remodeling over the next 3 or 4 years. One of Ames’ main jobs has been to trim Zayre’s top-heavy management. Aside from operating savings, Ames is getting more market penetration in certain eastern markets, and, perhaps more importantly, is entering major new markets where the company previously lacked a presence (particularly Florida and Illinois). Prior to the Zayre acquisition, Ames stores were concentrated in the suburban areas of large cities and in smaller cities.
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Byrne, Harlan S.

Full text: [Barron's National Business and Financial Weekly] Oct 16, 1989

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Valley, Pinnacle West Eliminate Dividends

Two of Arizona’s largest firms –Pinnacle West Capital Corp. and Valley National Corp. — simultaneously reported dismal third-quarter financial results last week and announced the suspension of their common stock dividends. Blaming their problems largely on failed or failing real estate loans made by their subsidiaries, both companies’ top officers said eliminating dividends would allow them to conserve resources until their difficulties subside. “It certainly is a difficult decision, but you have to face reality,” said Keith Turley, Pinnacle West’s chairman. (excerpt)
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O’Brien, Pat

Full text: [The Business Journal] Oct 23, 1989

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Mid-November Offering of Gehl Co. Stock Remains on Schedule After Crash

Just hours after Gehl Co. filed a prospectus outlining its proposed initial public offering on Oct. 13, the Dow Jones industrial average took a 190-point nose dive. Despite the volatility of the stock market and speculation about its future stability, Gehl officials intend to continue with their plans for a mid-November offering, according to individuals familiar with the IPO. “There’s a lot of room between the cup and the lip on this,” said John Collopy, chief executive officer of the Milwaukee brokerage firm of Cleary Gull Reiland McDevitt & Collopy Inc. “I’m sure they gulped a little over the weekend. (excerpt)
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Kurschner, Dale

Full text: [The Business Journal] Oct 23, 1989

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